Germany’s 2025 Election: Path Ahead.

The CDU/CSU’s narrow victory (28.6%) sets Friedrich Merz on track to lead a fragile coalition government, while the far-right AfD’s unprecedented 20.8% vote share signals rising polarization.

Internationally, Merz faces the dual challenge of managing strained U.S.-EU relations under Trump’s tariff threats and advocating for European “strategic autonomy” to reduce NATO dependency. Trade ties with China (€246 billion annually) remain economically vital but face growing scrutiny over human rights and market fairness, even as Germany walks a tightrope on continued military support for Ukraine amid AfD-led opposition.

Domestically, Merz’s likely CDU-SPD alliance must bridge stark divides: balancing tax cuts with public investment demands, tightening asylum policies through controversial Taliban negotiations, and reconciling climate goals with fiscal restraint.

The AfD’s anti-immigrant “remigration” agenda and anti-EU rhetoric threaten social cohesion, though mainstream parties currently reject collaboration.

Looking forward, Germany’s ability to stabilize its leadership role in Europe hinges on Merz’s capacity to accelerate EU defense integration, navigate U.S.-China trade tensions, and address climate policy gaps. With decision-making likely slowed by coalition infighting and far-right pressure, the world watches whether Europe’s largest economy can uphold its traditional stabilizing role or succumb to the centrifugal forces reshaping Western democracies.